WORKING THE PROBLEM: The Impact of COVID-19 & Some Advice to Answer Our Clients’ Top Concerns

An archive of our webcast is available. Jeff and Tony Muhlenkamp discuss the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Quarterly Letter, October 2019

It’s been a noisy summer. Lots of political news, lots of tariff and trade war news, lots of international headlines of various sorts. Funny thing though, as we write this note during the last week of September the S&P 500 Index is within three percent of the all-time high it set in July. By that measure, it’s been a quiet summer.
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Archive of May 30, 2019 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp use several economic charts to discuss the trends they see, data that concerns them, and indicators that keep them optimistic. For example: Delinquencies in auto loans continue to tick up. Credit card debt is now a concern and negative nominal yields on bonds continue in some countries (a historical aberration). Small business optimism and consumer confidence remain high. Watch our webcast to see what else they have to say.
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Archive of February 28, 2019 Webcast

Ron and Jeff update their views on the economy and the global investing environment. Negative developments include slowing global economic growth and diminishing positive impacts from the 2017 tax law changes. Positive developments include a fairly stable domestic economy and a shift in Federal Reserve attitudes and possibly actions. Give it a listen for more details.
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Quarterly Letter, January 2019

When we began 2018 we thought the markets would be dominated by two important changes: the passage of the new tax law in the final days of 2017 and a decline in dollar liquidity as the Federal Reserve both raised short-term rates and reduced the size of its balance sheet. We thought the first change would be good for the economy in both the short and long-term and the second change would be negative for most asset markets. We didn’t hazard a guess regarding when the negative influence would start to appear.
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Quarterly Letter, October 2018

At the end of the third quarter the U.S. economy is by most indicators in good shape. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth the first two quarters averaged 3% and forecasts are for the full year to come in at about 3%. Small business and consumer sentiment indicators are at high levels. Unemployment is quite low and most credit metrics are looking fine.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #128

The Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero from 2009 until 2015. Now, it continues its process of slowly raising short-term interest rates hoping not to disrupt economic growth. Jeff and Ron discuss the effects of a tightening money supply on individuals, companies, stocks, and currencies in their Quarterly Letter. Also included in this Memorandum is "Don't Let Financial Fraud Happen to You" to make you aware of some of the latest financial scams.
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Archive of August 30, 2018 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff updated participants on the changes in the economic indicators that they monitor and the potential threats and improvements to the U.S. economy and asset markets. They believe the U.S. government has removed some impediments to business, but are wary of cross-currents that might create problems. They also talked about what they are seeing in foreign economies, especially changes to the currency rates compared to the U.S. dollar and the ongoing changes to trade and tariffs.
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Quarterly Letter, April 2018

The first quarter of 2018 was marked by a sharp market correction and the unraveling of some very popular investment themes. The correction kicked off in February when wage data triggered inflation fears which caused bond yields to jump up (bond prices dropped) and equity prices to drop.
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Archive of August 22, 2017 Webcast

Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager, summarizes the economy using his 10-point checklist. Also, to celebrate our 40th anniversary, we asked Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager, to reflect on lessons he has learned and changes he has seen since he founded Muhlenkamp & Company in 1977. Included are Ron’s insights and observations.
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