Memorandum #155
In this issue of the Memorandum, Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp recognize that even with dramatic policy headlines around DOGE, tariffs, and immigration through the first half of 2025, the primary investment impact has been a notable 25% year-to-date increase in gold prices, prompting the firm to maintain cash reserves for potential recession opportunities while continuing a disciplined approach of selling disappointing holdings and capitalizing on promising investments.. Read more of their insights in their current Quarterly Letter. In "What Makes Muhlenkamp Different," Tony Muhlenkamp highlights what really sets Muhlenkamp apart from other money managers is something that can’t be easily [...]
Your Picky Purchasing Agent in a World of Games
Every day, you're bombarded with investment advice. Financial news channels flash stock tickers and breaking market updates. Social media influencers tout the latest "can't miss" opportunities. Your inbox fills with newsletters promising to reveal the next big winner. Everyone seems to have an opinion about where you should put your money. Here's the problem: most of these people aren't paid to make you money. They're paid to sell newspapers, generate clicks, entertain audiences, or move financial products. The only group that publishes the actual results of their advice? Professional money managers who are paid to manage other people's money. We've [...]
Navigating Today’s Market Realities
Investors face a complex landscape: cash and short-term bonds offer modest returns that, after taxes and inflation, do not currently keep pace with rising living costs. For example, a 4.2% Treasury Bill, when taxed at 35% and adjusted for 3% inflation, loses 0.3% per year[1]. 10-Year and 30-Year Treasuries yield 4.3% and 4.4%, so they are in the same boat. The S&P 500 has a YTD Loss of 5.45%[2] after seeing a steep drop and an equally steep bounce in early April. Investors can look overseas, but that’s not a sure thing at all. It seems like there is nowhere [...]
Memorandum #154
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss the first quarter of 2025, which saw stable economic indicators like CPI. But significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and market volatility. While we are monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession, we remain focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes. Read more of their insights in their current Quarterly Letter. In "Managing Your Portfolio in Uncertain Times," Tony Muhlenkamp discusses how uncertainty in the stock market is constant, making it essential to focus on what you can control rather than attempting to predict the unpredictable. [...]
So Far the 2020’s Don’t Look Like the 2010’s
Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp reviews the impact of national and international policies, the state of the US economy, the global economy, and changes in the political environment on investment opportunities. Watch the April 3, 2025, Investment Seminar recording. The opinions expressed are those of Muhlenkamp & Co. and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Is It Time To Play It Safe?
In a recent Bloomberg article, our portfolio manager, Jeff Muhlenkamp, summed up the current state of financial markets saying, “You’re going from an environment where everybody was certain to an environment where nobody is certain, and in and of itself that will impact the market.” As we’ve always maintained, financial markets hate uncertainty. Investors worldwide have recently shifted to a “risk-off” mindset—meaning they’re prioritizing safety over chasing big gains. This is foundational thinking at Muhlenkamp. Think of it like swapping an aggressive rollercoaster ride for a sturdy umbrella in a storm. Over the past few weeks, many have sold the [...]
Memorandum #153
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little. Read more of their insights and look ahead to 2025 in their Quarterly Letter. In the article "The 6 Ps of Financial Happiness," Tony Muhlenkamp explores the relationship between financial success and client happiness in investment management. Making clients happy is crucial for retaining them long enough to generate financial returns. The key lesson is that financial happiness, like life happiness, is the investor’s own responsibility—it requires discipline, planning, and [...]
Looking Toward 2025
Here’s a quick update on what we’re paying attention to as we come to the end of 2024: Markets Stocks: The market overall is expensive on almost all common metrics: market cap to GDP, price to sales, etc. We are very wary of the most popular, most expensive stocks that have done so well lately. A handful of VERY pricey tech stocks are driving the DOW, S&P500, and NASDAQ, Bond: The bond bull market ended in 2020 after almost 40 years. Long rates have risen for almost 4 years now, and bond prices have been DOWN for 4 years in [...]
Five Strategies to Maintain Your Investment Focus After Election Day
Five Strategies to Maintain Your Investment Focus After Election Day Whether your preferred candidate won or lost on election day, the 2024 election results have alleviated a degree of market uncertainties, prompting a positive market reaction. We recommend approaching this post-election moment with measured optimism while staying true to sound investment principles. Here are five strategies to help you navigate this new political and economic environment: Markets React to Uncertainty: The post-election rally reflects the removal of ambiguity rather than a guaranteed economic windfall. Stick to your long-term goals and resist chasing short-term gains driven by political news. Rebalance If [...]