Memorandum #154
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss the first quarter of 2025, which saw stable economic indicators like CPI. But significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and market volatility. While we are monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession, we remain focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes. Read more of their insights in their current Quarterly Letter. In "Managing Your Portfolio in Uncertain Times," Tony Muhlenkamp discusses how uncertainty in the stock market is constant, making it essential to focus on what you can control rather than attempting to predict the unpredictable. [...]
Letter to My Daughters: On Inflation as a Benchmark
In my last letter,[1] I talked about the various risks you have to contend with as an investor, and that different risks become more or less critical depending on what you are trying to do and the time frame you have for doing it. Now I want to discuss inflation, which I think is the paramount risk you face when trying to accomplish long-term financial goals. There are various definitions of inflation, and different theories about what causes inflation, all of which are interesting and can be useful depending on the situation, the discussion, and the problem you are trying [...]
So Far the 2020’s Don’t Look Like the 2010’s
Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp reviews the impact of national and international policies, the state of the US economy, the global economy, and changes in the political environment on investment opportunities. Watch the April 3, 2025, Investment Seminar recording. The opinions expressed are those of Muhlenkamp & Co. and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Is It Time To Play It Safe?
In a recent Bloomberg article, our portfolio manager, Jeff Muhlenkamp, summed up the current state of financial markets saying, “You’re going from an environment where everybody was certain to an environment where nobody is certain, and in and of itself that will impact the market.” As we’ve always maintained, financial markets hate uncertainty. Investors worldwide have recently shifted to a “risk-off” mindset—meaning they’re prioritizing safety over chasing big gains. This is foundational thinking at Muhlenkamp. Think of it like swapping an aggressive rollercoaster ride for a sturdy umbrella in a storm. Over the past few weeks, many have sold the [...]
Memorandum #153
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little. Read more of their insights and look ahead to 2025 in their Quarterly Letter. In the article "The 6 Ps of Financial Happiness," Tony Muhlenkamp explores the relationship between financial success and client happiness in investment management. Making clients happy is crucial for retaining them long enough to generate financial returns. The key lesson is that financial happiness, like life happiness, is the investor’s own responsibility—it requires discipline, planning, and [...]