The 2026 Social Security COLA: What Changed and What It Means for Your Retirement
By now, you've received your notice from Social Security: benefits increased by 2.8% in January 2026. For the average retiree, that means about $56 more per month—raising the average benefit from $2,015 to $2,071. If that number feels modest, you're not alone. In a recent survey, 77% of older adults said a 3% increase wouldn't be enough to help them keep up with rising prices. And if you're enrolled in Medicare Part B, the picture gets even more complicated: the standard premium increased by $17.90 per month in 2026, eating into more than 30% of that COLA before you see [...]
Social Security and the 2033 Question
Social Security is likely part of your retirement plan—but how much can you actually count on it? And when should you start taking benefits? The answers depend on understanding what Social Security really is, how it works, and where you are in life. Some observations: In Fleming v Nestor (1960), the Supreme Court ruled that Social Security benefits are not an “accrued property right” or contractual obligation. Paying Social Security taxes does not grant a worker a legally binding entitlement to receive specific benefits in the future. Social Security has always been “pay as you go,” meaning benefits were paid [...]
Five Tax-Smart Investing Strategies for 2026
Tax-smart investing is a dynamic and ongoing process. You can keep more of your hard-earned money by leveraging tax-advantaged accounts, prioritizing tax-efficient investments, and staying proactive about ever-changing tax laws. As 2026 unfolds, make it the year you take your tax strategy to the next level—because it’s not just about what you earn; it’s about what you keep after tax. Here are five strategies that help to maximize what you keep when it’s time to pay Uncle Sam. Maximize Tax-Advantaged Accounts. Tax-advantaged accounts remain a cornerstone of intelligent investing. These include: 401(k)s, IRAs, and Roth IRAs: Contribute the maximum allowable [...]
The 5 Ps of Rational Investing: What Matters Most
It’s hard to be rational when investing, ESPECIALLY when emotions seem to drive the markets. We’ve written about rational versus emotional investing in “The Game of the Stock Market vs. The Business of Investing” and “When Emotions Hijack Your Investment Returns,” but we have distilled those ideas into the Five P’s of Rational Investing. The interesting thing about market cycles isn’t just how they unfold—it’s also how investors respond to them. By nature, investors become complacent when markets are strong and panic when markets take a downturn. Both responses undermine long-term success. The best investors do something different. They maintain [...]
Muhlenkamp Memorandum #157
The economy showed modest growth in Q4, with a split between expanding services and contracting manufacturing. The Fed cut rates three times and quietly resumed asset purchases, raising questions about their inflation strategy. While AI excitement showed signs of cooling, gold delivered exceptional returns—up 70% for the year. We also invested in cyclical companies positioned for recovery. Read our full Quarterly Letter for a complete year-end review. Click to print a PDF copy of the full Memorandum.