Making the Most of Year-End: A Practical Guide
December 2025 Year-end planning letters typically arrive stuffed with charts, acronyms, and dozens of action items that leave you feeling overwhelmed before you finish reading. We're going to take a different approach. Let's talk about the handful of things that actually move the needle. The Big Picture Before we dive into tactics, let's be clear about what matters: You want to keep more of what you earn, protect what you've built, and pass on something meaningful to the people and causes you care about. Everything else is just mechanics. The tax code changes regularly, exemption limits shift with inflation, and [...]
Letter to My Daughters: On Professions and Callings
“He measured all his fellow workers by the test of professionalism, and a professional is a man who can do his best work when he doesn't feel like it.”--Alistair Cooke, About Humphrey Bogart from his book “Six Men." “A job is different from a calling. A job puts food on the table. It pays the bills. A calling is the most important thing you can do in this life in which you would be most difficult to replace.”--Gary North My definition: A calling feeds your soul; a profession feeds your body. You get paid for your profession; you may very well [...]
Navigating Market Noise: The Challenge of Separating Signals from Distractions
In the fast-paced world of investing, one of the most crucial skills is learning to distinguish between meaningful market signals and temporary distractions. Recent discussions among our investment team highlighted this ongoing challenge and the nuanced approach required to navigate today's information-rich environment. The Nature of Market Distractions Market participants face a constant barrage of what we call "distractions" – pop culture events, policy announcements, speculation on Federal Reserve moves, and other news that can dominate headlines and investor attention. While these events may seem significant at the moment, many prove to be temporary diversions from the underlying economic and [...]
When Emotions Hijack Your Investment Returns
There's a paradox at the heart of investing that costs people millions: their investments often perform far better than they do. An investment strategy might beat the market by 3% annually, yet the average investor in that strategy loses money. The culprit? Emotions. Fear is a powerful force. It whispers in our ears during market volatility, urging us to abandon our strategy at precisely the wrong moment. It convinces us that this time is different—that the rules we established in calmer moments no longer apply. It transforms a rational investment process into an emotional roller coaster where we buy high [...]
Muhlenkamp Memorandum #156
In this issue of the Memorandum, Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp report a moderating economy with no expected recession, though they remain cautious about high market valuations and the AI investment boom. While the Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates in response to labor market weakness, the firm's primary concern remains the unsustainable federal deficit and its likely resolution through inflation and currency debasement—reflected in gold's remarkable 42% year-to-date surge. Read more of their insights in their current Quarterly Letter. Click to print a PDF copy of the full Memorandum.
Letter to My Daughters: On Stocks and Bonds
We’ve looked at planning and goal setting, identifying and defining risk, and what it takes to earn a living and generate sufficient income that you can start saving. But what can you do with your money once you’ve earned it and NOT spent it? You can lend the money to someone (who will use that loan to make money of their own), or you can own a piece of something (hopefully something productive). That’s it. Everything offered as an investment product or investment vehicle is derived from either lending or owning, or some combination of the two. Loans are things [...]
Assessing Your Insurance Needs: A Strategic Approach
Insurance decisions shouldn't be driven by fear or sales pitches—they should be grounded in cold, hard financial logic. At Muhlenkamp, our approach to insurance is simple: "The purpose of insurance is to protect against financial disaster. Any non-financial loss cannot be remedied by insurance. Any loss that is not a disaster does not require insurance." This philosophy cuts through the noise of complex insurance products and expensive policies you don't need, focusing instead on what truly matters: protecting your family's financial future when it counts most. The Financial Disaster Test Before evaluating any insurance product, ask yourself three critical questions: [...]
Three Words That Define Us
I remember when Ron and Bev Morrow were creating the logo, and Ron wanted something simple and rational that spoke to the engineer in him. The equilateral triangle inside the regular quadrilateral (square) did that, and the colors black and white were simple, clear, and clean. I don’t think there was more to it than that at the time, but the three sides of the triangle relate to the three words of our motto. It’s accidental but true. I always thought the motto was a veiled reference to Ben Graham’s book for the layman, “The Intelligent Investor.” But Ron saw [...]
Labor Day & Back-to-School: A Fresh Season for Families
As we head into Labor Day weekend and children return to school, we’re reminded how closely our personal lives connect with the broader economy. Back-to-school season isn’t only about pencils and backpacks—it’s about growth, renewal, and opportunity. For families, this season often means renewed and refreshed routines, investments in education (both money and time), and even a welcome sense of structure. While spending on clothing, supplies, and activities can stretch household budgets, that spending also represents a foundational investment in our children’s future success at school and beyond. For the U.S. economy, these same purchases provide a late-summer boost for [...]
Letter to My Daughters: On Economic Laws
Previously, I’ve written to you about “Intelligent Investment Management” and how we need to be rational and thoughtful as we make investment decisions. One of the areas that investors must consider rationally is political economies, which are the systems people create to organize their interactions in ways that are mutually beneficial. Remember, there are no politics without economics, and there is no economics without politics, so we MUST think in terms of political economies. Much like physical (as in physics) relationships, political-economic relationships are governed by laws that govern how things work and what is possible to achieve. We can [...]