Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #135

In this issue of the Muhlenkamp Memorandum, Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss the effects of COVID-19 on the economy in their Quarterly Letter. Tony explains the use of the Client Relationship Summary and our responses to the suggested questions to ask advisers. Archives of our May webcast, "MAPPING YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE: It’s Never Too Late to Save for College," and our June webcast, "WORKING THE PROBLEM: The Impact of COVID-19 & Some Advice to Answer Our Clients’ Top Concerns," are available on our website.
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Quarterly Letter, July 2020

Since early March the economy has been driven by public reaction to the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic.  It remains our observation that public perception and actions are in the lead, not government actions, though there is significant feedback between the two.
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WORKING THE PROBLEM: The Impact of COVID-19 & Some Advice to Answer Our Clients’ Top Concerns

An archive of our webcast is available. Jeff and Tony Muhlenkamp discuss the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Quarterly Letter, April 2020

Before Ron and I start with our normal topics, please allow us to extend our heartfelt wishes for good health and good luck during this exceptional period. Also, our deepest thanks to all of you that are reaching out to help others. We are continually amazed at the many, many ways we see people helping each other and are inspired and heartened by such actions. Thank you.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #134

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep plunge to economies across the globe. In their Quarterly Letter, Jeff and Ron present their thoughts on this extraordinary period. This is not the first crisis and unfortunately it won’t be the last. In his “Letter to My Daughters: On Crisis and Disasters,” Tony suggests preparing yourself and working together. He gives advice on how to use your powers for good to become the person upon which others rely.
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Archive of February 27, 2020 Webcast

During our webcast Jeff Muhlenkamp discussed the state of the economy and the threats he perceived to it and the markets. Since then the rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and unprecedented measures by governments at all levels have rendered much of what he discussed irrelevant. We don’t know any more about the health risks posed by the COVID-19 than you do. Nor do we, or anyone else, know the secondary and tertiary political and economic consequences of the virus spreading.
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Archive of August 29, 2019 Webcast

During our webcast Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp examine some financial indicators to determine the overall health of the economy. In terms that we can all understand, they explain each chart, slide by slide, looking at both causes and symptoms of conditions that can lead to growth or decline. In summary, they share that economic indicators remain mixed, though a little worse off than last quarter. In some aspects of the economy, there has yet to be a full recovery from the previous recession. Are we headed for another downturn in the near future? See what your conclusion is after hearing their economic report.
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Quarterly Letter, July 2019

Here are the highlights of what we’re seeing so far this year: The Federal Reserve last raised short-term interest rates in December 2018 and is now actively talking about cutting them. The futures market, in fact, is pricing in two to three cuts this year. The Fed has also stated they will end the shrinking of their balance sheet in October. They’ve undergone quite a shift in thinking over the last six months! Our concern last year was that the Fed, through the reduction of the balance sheet, would reduce dollar availability and cause asset markets to fall. The Fed’s actions this year have alleviated that concern.
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Archive of August 30, 2018 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff updated participants on the changes in the economic indicators that they monitor and the potential threats and improvements to the U.S. economy and asset markets. They believe the U.S. government has removed some impediments to business, but are wary of cross-currents that might create problems. They also talked about what they are seeing in foreign economies, especially changes to the currency rates compared to the U.S. dollar and the ongoing changes to trade and tariffs.
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Archive of May 24, 2018 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff walk through a number of economic and financial indicators to better understand the U.S. economy and asset markets. They conclude that the economy will likely continue to grow at 2% or a little better, but that rising interest rates and other actions of the Federal Reserve increase the likelihood of problems with businesses or countries that need low interest rates to survive. They believe the markets will remain volatile as investors grapple with these two diametrically opposed pressures.
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