WORKING THE PROBLEM: The Impact of COVID-19 & Some Advice to Answer Our Clients’ Top Concerns

An archive of our webcast is available. Jeff and Tony Muhlenkamp discuss the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #134

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep plunge to economies across the globe. In their Quarterly Letter, Jeff and Ron present their thoughts on this extraordinary period. This is not the first crisis and unfortunately it won’t be the last. In his “Letter to My Daughters: On Crisis and Disasters,” Tony suggests preparing yourself and working together. He gives advice on how to use your powers for good to become the person upon which others rely.
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Quarterly Letter, January 2020

Looking back over 2019 only two things really mattered much to the economy of all the things that hit the headlines: tariffs and the Federal Reserve. The imposition of tariffs on imported goods forced a re-evaluation of a lot of supply chains and was a headwind for businesses. The Fed reversed the direction of policy in January: shifting from raising rates and reducing their balance sheet to lowering rates and expanding their balance sheet.
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Archive of August 29, 2019 Webcast

During our webcast Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp examine some financial indicators to determine the overall health of the economy. In terms that we can all understand, they explain each chart, slide by slide, looking at both causes and symptoms of conditions that can lead to growth or decline. In summary, they share that economic indicators remain mixed, though a little worse off than last quarter. In some aspects of the economy, there has yet to be a full recovery from the previous recession. Are we headed for another downturn in the near future? See what your conclusion is after hearing their economic report.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #129

In their Quarterly Letter, Ron and Jeff give a summary of the markets and the economy at the end of 2018: Market volatility has returned; the Fed has continued to shrink its balance sheet and raise short-term interest rates; and in the U.S., there has been a slowdown in the housing market. Tony explains in "Letter to My Daughters: On Retirement" that planning and action are vital if you want to retire someday. Additionally, we provide steps that you can take to avoid escheatment (the turning over of property to the state).
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Quarterly Letter, January 2019

When we began 2018 we thought the markets would be dominated by two important changes: the passage of the new tax law in the final days of 2017 and a decline in dollar liquidity as the Federal Reserve both raised short-term rates and reduced the size of its balance sheet. We thought the first change would be good for the economy in both the short and long-term and the second change would be negative for most asset markets. We didn’t hazard a guess regarding when the negative influence would start to appear.
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Quarterly Letter, October 2018

At the end of the third quarter the U.S. economy is by most indicators in good shape. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth the first two quarters averaged 3% and forecasts are for the full year to come in at about 3%. Small business and consumer sentiment indicators are at high levels. Unemployment is quite low and most credit metrics are looking fine.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #128

The Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero from 2009 until 2015. Now, it continues its process of slowly raising short-term interest rates hoping not to disrupt economic growth. Jeff and Ron discuss the effects of a tightening money supply on individuals, companies, stocks, and currencies in their Quarterly Letter. Also included in this Memorandum is "Don't Let Financial Fraud Happen to You" to make you aware of some of the latest financial scams.
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Quarterly Letter, April 2018

The first quarter of 2018 was marked by a sharp market correction and the unraveling of some very popular investment themes. The correction kicked off in February when wage data triggered inflation fears which caused bond yields to jump up (bond prices dropped) and equity prices to drop.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #126

In the first quarter of 2018, a number of very popular investments have all found their own reason to unwind nearly simultaneously. Ron and Jeff discuss these corrections in their Quarterly Letter. In his article, “Volatility and the VIX Collapse,” Jeff provides more detail on volatility while looking at the VIX and the demise of a couple of inverse-VIX exchange traded notes.
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