In this issue of the Muhlenkamp Memorandum, Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss the effects of COVID-19 on the economy in their Quarterly Letter. Tony explains the use of the Client Relationship Summary and our responses to the suggested questions to ask advisers. Archives of our May webcast, "MAPPING YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE: It’s Never Too Late to Save for College," and our June webcast, "WORKING THE PROBLEM: The Impact of COVID-19 & Some Advice to Answer Our Clients’ Top Concerns," are available on our website. More >
Since early March the economy has been driven by public reaction to the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. It remains our observation that public perception and actions are in the lead, not government actions, though there is significant feedback between the two. More >
Ron and Jeff state in their quarterly letter that the U.S. economy is doing well, but there are a number of things that could start to cause problems. In his article, "Relevant Elements for Investment Strategy," Tony looks into a few factors of investing such as time horizon, risk management, and price. Details on our upcoming webcast are included. More >
Allow us to summarize what we’re seeing so far this year. The U.S. economy is doing well, with 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth coming in at 2%, unemployment in May was a low 3.8%, and inflation was 2.8%. The interest rate on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes at the end of June was roughly 2.5%, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes yield almost 2.9%, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the county is 4.4%. More >
Tony Muhlenkamp hosted a chat with our portfolio managers Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp. During the conversation, Ron and Jeff shared their review of 2017, a year with unusually low market volatility, record-high market levels, and expensive equity valuations. They provided charts and checklists to better explain consumer and business spending and optimism, inflation, investors’ margin accounts, and many other items they monitor to determine where the economy is at year end and what concerns them going into 2018. They also explained how actions of the Japanese and European central banks may be influencing the U.S. stock market.
In this issue, Ron & Jeff Muhlenkamp discuss what they are seeing, thinking and doing in the current investment climate. Plus, Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. turns 40! In the Quarterly Letter, Ron and Jeff discuss international trade, economic growth, small business optimism, and disruption in the retail sector. Also included are some basics on creating a personal budget. More >
Why the underperformance relative to your benchmark? Ron and Jeff share their answer and the reason they will continue their approach to investing—investing in companies that are selling for less than they think they are worth, and selling those companies when they think the market price fully reflects their value. Tony expands on why he doesn't think this is the time to change our investment philosophy.
2016 was a disappointing year for us as our accounts, on average, lost about 3.56% of their value over the course of the year (individual performance varies by account), while the S&P 500 gained 11.96%—both figures include reinvestment of income. The obvious question is “Why the underperformance relative to your benchmark?” The short answer is that we didn’t own enough of the best performing sectors in the market: energy, financials, and industrials and we owned too much of the worst performing sector in the market: health care...
Is the economy back to pre-recessionary levels? Your answer may depend on what data you use and how you define your terms. Jeff and Ron walk through over 20 economic charts from foreign currencies vs. the dollar to their 10-point checklist they use as a guide. Here is an archive or our December 1, 2016 webcast.
Once again, the American public found a way to make their frustrations felt. As in most things in life, the answer to "what will happen next" is "it depends" and "wait and see." But we do have some general observations.