Quarterly Letter, January 2020

Looking back over 2019 only two things really mattered much to the economy of all the things that hit the headlines: tariffs and the Federal Reserve. The imposition of tariffs on imported goods forced a re-evaluation of a lot of supply chains and was a headwind for businesses. The Fed reversed the direction of policy in January: shifting from raising rates and reducing their balance sheet to lowering rates and expanding their balance sheet.
More >

Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #132

Ron and Jeff share what they see going on economically, financially, and politically in their Quarterly Letter. Their topics include: U.S. trade negotiations with China, Brexit and the markets, a German recession, an inverted yield curve, low inflation, and slowing industrial growth. Tony shares his ideas about money in terms of good and evil in his article, "Letter to My Daughters: On Money." Read our Memo to see if he thinks money is the root of all evil, or good for the soul?
More >

Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #131

In their Quarterly Letter, Ron and Jeff discuss the Fed’s actions on interest rates, trade negotiations with China, the United Kingdom’s progress with Brexit, and the indications of a slowdown in the United States. In his article, “Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!” Tony reminds investors to remember their financial goals and the fundamental investment principles when threats arise.
More >

Archive of May 30, 2019 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp use several economic charts to discuss the trends they see, data that concerns them, and indicators that keep them optimistic. For example: Delinquencies in auto loans continue to tick up. Credit card debt is now a concern and negative nominal yields on bonds continue in some countries (a historical aberration). Small business optimism and consumer confidence remain high. Watch our webcast to see what else they have to say.
More >

Quarterly Letter, April 2019

A couple of noteworthy changes have occurred in the first quarter of 2019: First, the Federal Reserve has reconsidered their program of interest rate increases and balance sheet reductions. They now intend to hold short-term rates steady in 2019 and end their balance sheet reduction program in October 2019. Last year, we wrote extensively about the risk to asset prices we saw in the Federal Reserve’s asset reduction program and, we believe, the market started reacting to that program in October 2018.
More >

Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #129

In their Quarterly Letter, Ron and Jeff give a summary of the markets and the economy at the end of 2018: Market volatility has returned; the Fed has continued to shrink its balance sheet and raise short-term interest rates; and in the U.S., there has been a slowdown in the housing market. Tony explains in "Letter to My Daughters: On Retirement" that planning and action are vital if you want to retire someday. Additionally, we provide steps that you can take to avoid escheatment (the turning over of property to the state).
More >

Archive of November 15, 2018 Webcast

Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp examined the ripple effect and the unintended consequences of changes to interest rates, regulations, tariffs, and the money supply. An example being: In an effort to unwind its Quantitative Easing measures, the Federal Reserve is continuing to raise short-term interest rates and reduce its balance sheet. These higher interest rates have contributed to a slowdown in the housing market which could lead to a decline in home prices.
More >

Quarterly Letter, October 2018

At the end of the third quarter the U.S. economy is by most indicators in good shape. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth the first two quarters averaged 3% and forecasts are for the full year to come in at about 3%. Small business and consumer sentiment indicators are at high levels. Unemployment is quite low and most credit metrics are looking fine.
More >

Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #128

The Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero from 2009 until 2015. Now, it continues its process of slowly raising short-term interest rates hoping not to disrupt economic growth. Jeff and Ron discuss the effects of a tightening money supply on individuals, companies, stocks, and currencies in their Quarterly Letter. Also included in this Memorandum is "Don't Let Financial Fraud Happen to You" to make you aware of some of the latest financial scams.
More >

Archive of August 30, 2018 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff updated participants on the changes in the economic indicators that they monitor and the potential threats and improvements to the U.S. economy and asset markets. They believe the U.S. government has removed some impediments to business, but are wary of cross-currents that might create problems. They also talked about what they are seeing in foreign economies, especially changes to the currency rates compared to the U.S. dollar and the ongoing changes to trade and tariffs.
More >