Quarterly Letter, April 2019

A couple of noteworthy changes have occurred in the first quarter of 2019: First, the Federal Reserve has reconsidered their program of interest rate increases and balance sheet reductions. They now intend to hold short-term rates steady in 2019 and end their balance sheet reduction program in October 2019. Last year, we wrote extensively about the risk to asset prices we saw in the Federal Reserve’s asset reduction program and, we believe, the market started reacting to that program in October 2018.
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Archive of February 28, 2019 Webcast

Ron and Jeff update their views on the economy and the global investing environment. Negative developments include slowing global economic growth and diminishing positive impacts from the 2017 tax law changes. Positive developments include a fairly stable domestic economy and a shift in Federal Reserve attitudes and possibly actions. Give it a listen for more details.
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Some Things I Would Have Liked To Have Known Sooner

Here is a collection of items published by Ronald H. Muhlenkamp, including: • “Reading List For Life And Investment Fundamentals 101” • “Basic Financial Maxims I Want My Kids to Know” • “Muhlenkamp’s Musings on Economics” • “Employment Costs” • “U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures” • “Reflecting over 40 Years—Lessons Learned and Changes Observed
https://library.muhlenkamp.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/Some_Things_I_Would_Have_Liked_To_Have_Known_Sooner.pdf" target="_blank">More >

Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #129

In their Quarterly Letter, Ron and Jeff give a summary of the markets and the economy at the end of 2018: Market volatility has returned; the Fed has continued to shrink its balance sheet and raise short-term interest rates; and in the U.S., there has been a slowdown in the housing market. Tony explains in "Letter to My Daughters: On Retirement" that planning and action are vital if you want to retire someday. Additionally, we provide steps that you can take to avoid escheatment (the turning over of property to the state).
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Quarterly Letter, January 2019

When we began 2018 we thought the markets would be dominated by two important changes: the passage of the new tax law in the final days of 2017 and a decline in dollar liquidity as the Federal Reserve both raised short-term rates and reduced the size of its balance sheet. We thought the first change would be good for the economy in both the short and long-term and the second change would be negative for most asset markets. We didn’t hazard a guess regarding when the negative influence would start to appear.
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Archive of November 15, 2018 Webcast

Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp examined the ripple effect and the unintended consequences of changes to interest rates, regulations, tariffs, and the money supply. An example being: In an effort to unwind its Quantitative Easing measures, the Federal Reserve is continuing to raise short-term interest rates and reduce its balance sheet. These higher interest rates have contributed to a slowdown in the housing market which could lead to a decline in home prices.
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Quarterly Letter, October 2018

At the end of the third quarter the U.S. economy is by most indicators in good shape. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth the first two quarters averaged 3% and forecasts are for the full year to come in at about 3%. Small business and consumer sentiment indicators are at high levels. Unemployment is quite low and most credit metrics are looking fine.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #128

The Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero from 2009 until 2015. Now, it continues its process of slowly raising short-term interest rates hoping not to disrupt economic growth. Jeff and Ron discuss the effects of a tightening money supply on individuals, companies, stocks, and currencies in their Quarterly Letter. Also included in this Memorandum is "Don't Let Financial Fraud Happen to You" to make you aware of some of the latest financial scams.
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Archive of August 30, 2018 Webcast

During our webcast, Ron and Jeff updated participants on the changes in the economic indicators that they monitor and the potential threats and improvements to the U.S. economy and asset markets. They believe the U.S. government has removed some impediments to business, but are wary of cross-currents that might create problems. They also talked about what they are seeing in foreign economies, especially changes to the currency rates compared to the U.S. dollar and the ongoing changes to trade and tariffs.
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Muhlenkamp Memorandum Issue #127

Ron and Jeff state in their quarterly letter that the U.S. economy is doing well, but there are a number of things that could start to cause problems. In his article, "Relevant Elements for Investment Strategy," Tony looks into a few factors of investing such as time horizon, risk management, and price. Details on our upcoming webcast are included.
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