Market Commentary

Archive of February 16, 2017 Webcast

Ron's maxim, “When you change the rules a little, you change the game a lot,” applies to many things in life. During our webcast, Jeff and Ron looked at the potential impact and the second and third effects that changing policies and regulations by President Trump and his new administration could have on the economy. Since the last recession, small businesses have been reluctant to expand because they were unsure of the rules: the possibility of increased taxes, expanding healthcare costs, and more regulations. After the 2016 election, small business confidence spiked. Jeff and Ron debated what may have boosted optimism. They also talked about current interest rates, bond rates, the dollar, and ongoing concerns in Europe.
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Archive of December 1, 2016 Webcast

Is the economy back to pre-recessionary levels? Your answer may depend on what data you use and how you define your terms. Jeff and Ron walk through over 20 economic charts from foreign currencies vs. the dollar to their 10-point checklist they use as a guide. Here is an archive or our December 1, 2016 webinar.
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The Election: Some General Observations

Once again, the American public found a way to make their frustrations felt. As in most things in life, the answer to "what will happen next" is "it depends" and "wait and see." But we do have some general observations...
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Archive of September 1, 2016 Conference Call

During our semi-annual conference call, portfolio managers Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp shared their thoughts and observations about current market conditions and economies across the globe.
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Archive of February 25, 2016 Conference Call

If you weren't able to join the February 25th conference call or you wish to review the conversation, an archive is available for your convenience. During our call, portfolio managers Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp discussed what they’ve seen across global economies and markets—honing in on the U.S., and what they’re doing in response to preserve capital and build wealth.
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Archive of August 27, 2015 Conference Call

Tony Muhlenkamp, President, hosted this conference call with Jeff Muhlenkamp, Investment Analyst and Co-Manager, where they discussed what's been going on this past quarter in the U.S. and abroad. Jeff talked about Japan's quantitative easing, Greece's debt problem, China's growth challenges, and changes in oil prices and other commodities. He also shared his thoughts on ETF's, earnings of U.S. companies, and the value of the dollar.
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Archive of February 19, 2015 Conference Call

An archive of the conference call with our portfolio managers, Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp is available. They discuss the economy, the markets, their investment outlook, and a few companies in our Top Ten Holdings, as well as respond to questions from participants.
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Market Commentary, December 2014

Anytime we talk about currencies being devalued, or getting stronger, we have to include the question, "relative to what?" (as in, the U.S. dollar is stronger relative to the Japanese yen, or the Chinese renminbi is stronger relative to the euro, etc.). We also have to remember that a strong dollar is good for some, bad for others.
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Market Commentary, July 2014

In Europe, Banco Espirito Santo, the largest bank in Portugal, has defaulted on interest payments on its bonds. Europe has not solved its problems. In the U.S., for at least the fourth consecutive year, estimates of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth, which exceeded 3% prior to the beginning of the year, have been reduced to 2% or less by midyear (now).
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Market Commentary, April 2014

Russia’s action in the Ukraine / Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not. Japan’s version of “Quantitative Easing,” after helping its market last year, is now running out of gas. A few days ago, Japan raised its consumption tax; the last time they did that, it triggered a recession.
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Market Commentary, January 2014

Some of the things we’ve been talking/warning you about in recent years came to fruition in 2013. Specifically, medium- and long-term interest rates rose and commodity prices declined. While the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to hold short-term interest rates near zero, rates in the intermediate to longer term, (5-30 year) increased substantially during the year, driving bond prices down.
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Market Commentary, November 2013

“The Big Squeeze,” by Jeff Muhlenkamp, Co-Manager  
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Market Commentary, October 2013

Since 2008, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a huge manipulator of the money supply and of interest rates. Beginning with TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) in 2008—and continuing through Quantitative Easing II (QE2), Operation Twist, and QE3, the Fed has added over $2 trillion to our money supply (nearly $20,000 per household) and purposely bought U.S. Treasuries and mortgaged-backed securities to keep prices of these securities up and keep interest rates artificially low.
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Market Commentary, April 2013

As usual, there are conflicting pressures on both the marketplace and the economy. Over time, economic growth is good for both, but growth in the marketplace often leads growth in the economy. The trouble is that growth in the marketplace is also subject to false starts. And, of course, both the stock market and the economy are measured in dollars—which is itself an elastic yardstick; (in 1968 dollars, I’m 46 feet tall).
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Market Commentary, March 2013

One of our favorite maxims is, “When we change the rules a little, we change the game a lot.” We find this maxim applies in many areas of life, from games—different versions of pinochle—to sports—no helmet contact—to economics.
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Market Commentary, February 2013

A broker friend of mine told me recently that his clients are looking for “creative sources of yield.” The phrase set off alarm bells in my head! Let me tell you why.
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Market Commentary, January 2013

To welcome in the New Year, Congress and the Obama administration have addressed one side of the deficit problem: government revenues (taxes). For most Americans, they've gone halfway, keeping income tax rates at prior levels for those couples earning less than $450,000 per year; refer to 2013 tax table.
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Announcements

Ron appeared on CNBC February 2, 2017

Ron Muhlenkamp made a guest appearance on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ on February 2, 2017. He appears in the segment titled...
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Ron appeared on CNBC January 12, 2017

Ron Muhlenkamp made a guest appearance on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ on January 12, 2017. He appears in the segment titled...
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