Ron's maxim, “When you change the rules a little, you change the game a lot,”
applies to many things in life. During our webcast, Jeff and Ron looked at the potential impact and the second and third effects that changing policies and regulations by President Trump and his new administration could have on the economy. Since the last recession, small businesses have been reluctant to expand because they were unsure of the rules: the possibility of increased taxes, expanding healthcare costs, and more regulations. After the 2016 election, small business confidence spiked. Jeff and Ron debated what may have boosted optimism. They also talked about current interest rates, bond rates, the dollar, and ongoing concerns in Europe.
Is the economy back to pre-recessionary levels? Your answer may depend on what data you use and how you define your terms. Jeff and Ron walk through over 20 economic charts from foreign currencies vs. the dollar to their 10-point checklist they use as a guide. Here is an archive or our December 1, 2016 webinar.
Ron addresses how the retirement plans of individuals and institutions have changed due to low GDP growth, productivity, and interest rates—what was thought to be temporary has lasted longer than expected, with no end in sight. The assumptions made while making retirement plans and decisions ten years ago are now obsolete. Jeff summarizes the implications for investors of every age and disposition.
Portfolio managers Ron and Jeff presented their observations, interpretations, and decisions about the investment climate. They updated us on the items comprising their “checklist,” ranging from what’s happening on the domestic front (interest rates, consumer spending, health of financial institutions, etc.) to what’s taking place across the globe (Europe, China, emerging markets, etc.). More >
In this country, a quarter of our natural gas production is used by industry, a quarter is used to generate electricity, and half is used for home heating. As investors, we learned a long time ago that if a product or service makes sense to the consumer it probably will last a long time. More >
The financial headlines tell us the stock market is hitting new highs, but they don’t tell us much about what is going on beneath the surface. Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp talk about some of the cross currents in the global markets and economies because we think future returns will depend on what you own, when you bought it, and what you paid to get it—owning an index, industry or sector will be less useful. To us, that’s the very definition of A Stock Picker’s Market. More >
Advances in biomedical science continue to transform the way medicine is being practiced. Since the 1950s, we have experienced a steady stream of breakthrough innovations, ranging from vaccines for the masses to precision medicines based on one’s unique genetic makeup. In a 50-year span, we’ve gone from characterizing the double-helix structure of DNA to a complete mapping of the human genome. More >
I find that many of the things we see today are similar to what we’ve seen before. For instance, the government budget deficits today look much like the deficits of the 1980s. And concerns about China today are similar to concerns we had about Japan in the 1970s. Over the past years, I’ve written extensively about the self-defeating nature of excessive taxation and how interest rates and inflation affect your purchasing power. This presentation is a synthesis of 40 years of observations based on facts. More >