Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp examined the ripple effect and the unintended consequences of changes to interest rates, regulations, tariffs, and the money supply. An example being: In an effort to unwind its Quantitative Easing measures, the Federal Reserve is continuing to raise short-term interest rates and reduce its balance sheet. These higher interest rates have contributed to a slowdown in the housing market which could lead to a decline in home prices. More >
During our webcast, Ron and Jeff updated participants on the changes in the economic indicators that they monitor and the potential threats and improvements to the U.S. economy and asset markets. They believe the U.S. government has removed some impediments to business, but are wary of cross-currents that might create problems. They also talked about what they are seeing in foreign economies, especially changes to the currency rates compared to the U.S. dollar and the ongoing changes to trade and tariffs. More >
During our webcast, Ron and Jeff walk through a number of economic and financial indicators to better understand the U.S. economy and asset markets. They conclude that the economy will likely continue to grow at 2% or a little better, but that rising interest rates and other actions of the Federal Reserve increase the likelihood of problems with businesses or countries that need low interest rates to survive. They believe the markets will remain volatile as investors grapple with these two diametrically opposed pressures. More >
Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp explain that recent tax cuts and deregulation should help keep the economy moving. Asset markets, on the other hand, could be affected by monetary tightening as the Federal Reserve and other central banks reduce or reverse their easy money policies. Tightening of the money supply could cause bond yields to increase and some market disruptions. More >
Tony Muhlenkamp hosted a chat with our portfolio managers Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp. During the conversation, Ron and Jeff shared their review of 2017, a year with unusually low market volatility, record-high market levels, and expensive equity valuations. They provided charts and checklists to better explain consumer and business spending and optimism, inflation, investors’ margin accounts, and many other items they monitor to determine where the economy is at year end and what concerns them going into 2018. They also explained how actions of the Japanese and European central banks may be influencing the U.S. stock market. More >
Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager, summarizes the economy using his 10-point checklist. Also, to celebrate our 40th anniversary, we asked Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager, to reflect on lessons he has learned and changes he has seen since he founded Muhlenkamp & Company in 1977. Included are Ron’s insights and observations. More >
When it comes to building our portfolios, we say we build them from the bottom up and then we edit them from the top down. During the Muhlenkamp & Company webcast on Thursday, May 11, 2017, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp along with President Tony Muhlenkamp shared our process. Jeff also talked about some of the key indicators that we are following to give investors an insight into what we are doing and why. More >
Ron's maxim, “When you change the rules a little, you change the game a lot,”
applies to many things in life. During our webcast, Jeff and Ron looked at the potential impact and the second and third effects that changing policies and regulations by President Trump and his new administration could have on the economy. Since the last recession, small businesses have been reluctant to expand because they were unsure of the rules: the possibility of increased taxes, expanding healthcare costs, and more regulations. After the 2016 election, small business confidence spiked. Jeff and Ron debated what may have boosted optimism. They also talked about current interest rates, bond rates, the dollar, and ongoing concerns in Europe.
Is the economy back to pre-recessionary levels? Your answer may depend on what data you use and how you define your terms. Jeff and Ron walk through over 20 economic charts from foreign currencies vs. the dollar to their 10-point checklist they use as a guide. Here is an archive or our December 1, 2016 webinar.
Ron addresses how the retirement plans of individuals and institutions have changed due to low GDP growth, productivity, and interest rates—what was thought to be temporary has lasted longer than expected, with no end in sight. The assumptions made while making retirement plans and decisions ten years ago are now obsolete. Jeff summarizes the implications for investors of every age and disposition.